Biophysical Mechanistic Modelling Quantifies the Effects of Plant Traits on Fire Severity: Species, Not Surface Fuel Loads, Determine Flame Dimensions in Eucalypt Forests

Philip Zylstra; Ross A Bradstock; Michael Bedward; Trent D Penman; Michael D Doherty; Rodney O Weber; A Malcolm Gill; Geoffrey J Cary

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0160715

Biophysical Mechanistic Modelling Quantifies the Effects of Plant Traits on Fire Severity: Species, Not Surface Fuel Loads, Determine Flame Dimensions in Eucalypt Forests

PLoS One. 2016 Aug 16;11(8):e0160715. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0160715. eCollection 2016.

Authors

Philip Zylstra¹, Ross A Bradstock¹, Michael Bedward¹, Trent D Penman², Michael D Doherty³, Rodney O Weber⁴, A Malcolm Gill³, Geoffrey J Cary³

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
² School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, VIC, Australia.
³ Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia.
⁴ Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of NSW ADFA, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

Abstract

The influence of plant traits on forest fire behaviour has evolutionary, ecological and management implications, but is poorly understood and frequently discounted. We use a process model to quantify that influence and provide validation in a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under varying conditions. Measured height of consumption was compared to heights predicted using a surface fuel fire behaviour model, then key aspects of our model were sequentially added to this with and without species-specific information. Our fully specified model had a mean absolute error 3.8 times smaller than the otherwise identical surface fuel model (p < 0.01), and correctly predicted the height of larger (≥1 m) flames 12 times more often (p < 0.001). We conclude that the primary endogenous drivers of fire severity are the species of plants present rather than the surface fuel load, and demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the model for quantifying this.

MeSH terms

Biophysical Phenomena*
Disasters
Environment
Fires*
Forests*
Hot Temperature
Models, Biological*
Plant Leaves / metabolism
Plants* / metabolism

Grants and funding

All work was funded by the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au) as part of an ongoing contract with the University of Wollongong Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.