Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

PLoS One. 2016 Aug 11;11(8):e0157425. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157425. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

MeSH terms

  • Canada
  • Climate Change / statistics & numerical data*
  • Ecosystem
  • Firefighters*
  • Fires / economics*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Time Factors
  • Trees*

Grants and funding

These authors have no support or funding to report. BJ. Stocks Wildfire Investigations Ltd. provided support in the form of salaries for authors [BJS], but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section.