Objective: Nonblood-based risk assessment for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) that depends on data based on a questionnaire and anthropometry is expected to avoid unnecessary diagnostic testing and overdiagnosis due to blood testing. This meta-analysis aims to assess the predictive ability of nonblood-based risk assessment for future incident T2DM.
Methods: Electronic literature search was conducted using EMBASE and MEDLINE (from January 1, 1997 to October 1, 2014). Included studies had to use at least 3 predictors for T2DM risk assessment and allow reproduction of 2×2 contingency table data (i.e., true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative) to be pooled with a bivariate random-effects model and hierarchical summary receiver-operating characteristic model. Considering the importance of excluding individuals with a low likelihood of T2DM from diagnostic blood testing, we especially focused on specificity and LR-.
Results: Eighteen eligible studies consisting of 184,011 participants and 7038 cases were identified. The pooled estimates (95% confidence interval) were as follows: sensitivity=0.73 (0.66-0.79), specificity=0.66 (0.59-0.73), LR+=2.13 (1.81-2.50), and LR-=0.41 (0.34-0.50).
Conclusions: Nonblood-based assessment of risk of T2DM could produce acceptable results although the feasibility of such a screener needs to be determined in future studies.
Keywords: Mass screening; Meta-analysis; Risk assessment; Type 2 diabetes mellitus.
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