Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

Hyunsu Kim; Yoo-Keun Kim; Sang-Keun Song; Hwa Woon Lee

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.046

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

Sci Total Environ. 2016 Nov 15:571:355-63. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.046. Epub 2016 Jul 25.

Authors

Hyunsu Kim¹, Yoo-Keun Kim², Sang-Keun Song³, Hwa Woon Lee¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea.
² Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: kimyk@pusan.ac.kr.
³ Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, Jeju National University, Jeju 690-756, Republic of Korea.

PMID: 27457672
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.046

Abstract

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions.

Keywords: Future climate projection uncertainty; Future land use changes; Future regional climate changes; SMA; Urban growth model; Urban growth scenario.