The Impact of Farmers' Strategic Behavior on the Spread of Animal Infectious Diseases

PLoS One. 2016 Jun 14;11(6):e0157450. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157450. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions.

MeSH terms

  • Animal Husbandry* / economics
  • Animal Husbandry* / legislation & jurisprudence
  • Animal Husbandry* / methods
  • Animals
  • Cattle
  • Cattle Diseases / economics*
  • Cattle Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemiological Monitoring
  • Farmers / legislation & jurisprudence
  • Humans
  • Monte Carlo Method

Grants and funding

This work was partially sponsored by an INRA Scientific Package and by the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/ under REA grant agreement number 609642. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.