Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is the most common disease among working population requiring surgical intervention. This study aims to predict the return to work after operative treatment of LDH based on the observational study including 153 patients. The classification problem was approached using decision trees (DT), support vector machines (SVM) and multilayer perception (MLP) combined with RELIEF algorithm for feature selection. MLP provided best recall of 0.86 for the class of patients not returning to work, which combined with the selected features enables early identification and personalized targeted interventions towards subjects at risk of prolonged disability. The predictive modeling indicated at the most decisive risk factors in prolongation of work absence: psychosocial factors, mobility of the spine and structural changes of facet joints and professional factors including standing, sitting and microclimate.