Stratification of endometrioid endometrial cancer patients into risk levels using somatic mutations

Abstract

Objective: Patients with endometrioid endometrial cancer are stratified as high risk and low risk for extrauterine disease by surgical staging. Since patients with low-grade, minimally invasive disease do not benefit from comprehensive staging, pre-surgery stratification into a risk category may prevent unnecessary surgical staging in low risk patients. Our objective was to develop a predictive model to identify risk levels using somatic mutations that could be used preoperatively.

Methods: We classified endometrioid endometrial cancer patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset into high risk and low risk categories: high risk patients presented with stage II, III or IV disease or stage I with high-intermediate risk features, whereas low risk patients consisted of the remaining stage I patients with either no myometrial invasion or low-intermediate risk features. Three strategies were used to build the prediction model: 1) mutational status for each gene; 2) number of somatic mutations for each gene; and 3) variant allele frequencies for each somatic mutation for each gene.

Results: Each prediction strategy had a good performance, with an area under the curve (or AUC) between 61% and 80%. Analysis of variant allele frequency produced a superior prediction model for risk levels of endometrial cancer as compared to the other two strategies, with an AUC=91%. Lasso and Ridge methods identified 53 mutations that together had the highest predictability for high risk endometrioid endometrial cancer.

Conclusions: This prediction model will assist future retrospective and prospective studies to categorize endometrial cancer patients into high risk and low risk in the preoperative setting.

Keywords: Endometrial cancer; Individualized treatment; Prediction model; Risk levels; Somatic mutations.