Prediction of the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients after Sustained Virological Response by Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index

Gut Liver. 2016 Sep 15;10(5):796-802. doi: 10.5009/gnl15368.

Abstract

Background/aims: Following sustained virological response (SVR) for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection, patients with advanced fibrosis require regular monitoring for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) is a simple noninvasive surrogate marker known to reflect fibrosis.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 598 patients who achieved SVR with interferonbased therapy for CHC.

Results: Over a median of 5.1 years of follow-up, there were eight patients diagnosed with HCC and a 5-year cumulative incidence rate of 1.3%. The median pretreatment APRI was 0.83, which decreased to 0.29 after achieving SVR (p<0.001). Both the pre- and posttreatment indices were associated with HCC development. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 0% and 2.8% for patients with pretreatment APRI <1.0 and ≥1.0, respectively (p=0.001) and 0.8% and 12.8% for patients with posttreatment APRI <1.0 and ≥1.0, respectively (p<0.001). Pretreatment APRI at a cutoff of 1.0 had a 100% negative predictive value until 10 years after SVR.

Conclusions: HCC development was observed among CHC patients who achieved SVR. The pre- and post-treatment APRI could stratify HCC risk, indicating that the APRI could be a useful marker to classify HCC risk in CHC patients who achieved SVR. However, given the small number of HCC patients, this finding warrants further validation.

Keywords: Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index; Carcinoma; Hepatitis C; Sustained virological response; chronic; hepatocellular.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Antiviral Agents / therapeutic use
  • Aspartate Aminotransferases / blood*
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / epidemiology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / virology*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Hepacivirus / drug effects
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / blood*
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / complications
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / drug therapy
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / enzymology*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Liver Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Liver Neoplasms / virology*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Platelet Count
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index*
  • Sustained Virologic Response

Substances

  • Antiviral Agents
  • Biomarkers
  • Aspartate Aminotransferases