The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy

PLoS One. 2016 Apr 22;11(4):e0154018. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154018. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density-dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Climate*
  • Culex / physiology*
  • Culex / virology
  • Insect Vectors
  • Italy
  • Population Dynamics
  • Seasons
  • West Nile Fever / transmission
  • West Nile virus / isolation & purification

Grants and funding

The field work was supported by Regione Piemonte, according the regional law 75/95. This work was funded by the Autonomous Province of Trento (Italy), Research funds for Grandi Progetti (Prot. n. 319292-S116-2013), Project LExEM (Laboratory of excellence for epidemiology and modelling, http://www.lexem.eu). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.