Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China

Abstract

Background: The concentrations of ozone (O3) in China are increasing, especially in East China, but its future trends and potential health impacts remain to be explored.

Objectives: The objective was to assess future trends in O3 concentrations and related premature death in East China between 2005 and 2030.

Methods: First, a global chemical transport model (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) and regional chemical transport modelling system (including the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model) were combined to estimate daily O3 concentrations in 2005 and 2030 in East China under the "current legislation" (CLE) and "maximum technically feasible reduction" (MFR) scenarios which were applied globally. O3 concentrations were then linked with population projections, mortality projections, and O3-mortality associations to estimate changes in O3-related mortality in East China.

Results: The annual mean O3 concentration was projected to increase in East China between 2005 and 2030 under the CLE scenario, while decrease under the MFR scenario. Under the CLE scenario, O3-attributable health burden could increase by at least 40,000 premature deaths in East China, without considering the population growth. Under the MFR scenario, the health burden could decrease by up to 260,000 premature deaths as a result of the reduction in O3 concentration with a static population. However, when the population growth was considered, O3-attributable health burden could increase by up to 46,000 premature deaths in East China under the MFR scenario.

Conclusions: The results suggest that the health burden attributable to O3 may increase in East China in 2030.

Keywords: East China; Mortality; Ozone; Projection.