Examining the relationship between environmental factors and conflict in pastoralist areas of East Africa

Essayas K Ayana; Pietro Ceccato; Jonathan R B Fisher; Ruth DeFries

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.102

Examining the relationship between environmental factors and conflict in pastoralist areas of East Africa

Sci Total Environ. 2016 Jul 1:557-558:601-11. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.102. Epub 2016 Mar 31.

Authors

Essayas K Ayana¹, Pietro Ceccato², Jonathan R B Fisher³, Ruth DeFries⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA; The Nature Conservancy, Central Science Department, Arlington, VA, USA.
² The International Research Institute, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
³ The Nature Conservancy, Central Science Department, Arlington, VA, USA.
⁴ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.

PMID: 27037881
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.102

Abstract

The eastern Africa region has long been known for recurring drought, prolonged civil war and frequent pastoral conflicts. Several researchers have suggested that environmental factors can trigger conflicts among pastoralist communities, but quantitative support for this hypothesis is lacking. Here we use 29years of georeferenced precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to evaluate long term trends in scarcity of water and forage for livestock, and then ask whether these environmental stressors have any predictive power with respect to the location and timing of 11years of conflict data based on Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Results indicate that environmental stressors were only partly predictive of conflict events. To better understand the drivers behind conflict, the contribution of other potential stressors to conflict need to be systematically quantified and be taken into consideration.

Keywords: Climate and environmental factors; Conflict; East Africa; Pastoralist.