The fecundity and longevity of Ascotis selenaria (Denis & Schiffermüller 1775) female adults were examined at constant temperatures ranging from 13-35°C. Adult longevity decreased as the temperature increased and ranged from 26.2 d at 13.1°C to 5.2 d at 34.3°C. The maximum observed fecundity of A. selenaria was 2,420 eggs per female at 19.4°C, which decreased to ca 100 eggs per female at 34.3°C. Female adult aging rates (one per median longevity) were well described by a sigmoid equation in the range of 13-35°C used to calculate the physiological age of adults. The relationship between total fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate curve were fitted to a three-parameter Weibull function. An oviposition model for A. selenaria was developed using the estimated three temperature-dependent submodels: total fecundity, age-specific cumulative oviposition, and age-specific survival rate models. The oviposition model was simulated using pheromone catches of A. selenaria females as input value. Simulated egg populations were subjected to egg stage emergence model to project first-instar populations. Overall, the output of our simulation described the field occurrence pattern of A. selenaria first-instar populations in 2009 and 2010.
Keywords: aging rate; citrus pest; field validation; temperature.
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