Objective: To determine the percentage of patients who would develop chronic inflammatory rheumatism (CIR) following chikungunya (CHIK) virus disease.
Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the literature in 3 databases (PubMed, Science Citation Index, and Scopus) to identify studies assessing the proportion of patients who progress to CHIK-CIR. We performed a random-effects model meta-analysis to calculate the pooled prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). A 2-tailed alpha level of 5% was used for hypothesis testing. Measures of heterogeneity, including Cochran's Q statistic, the I2 index, and the tau-squared test, were calculated and reported. Subgroup analyses were conducted by type of study and country, by studies evaluating chronic arthritis, and by studies with ≥200 patients and followup ≥18 months. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel-plot.
Results: Up to June 15, 2015, our literature search yielded 578 citations. The pooled prevalence of CHIK-CIR in 18 selected studies among 5,702 patients was 40.22% (95% CI 31.11-49.34; τ2 = 0.0838). From studies derived from India, prevalence was 27.27% (95% CI 15.66-38.88; τ2 = 0.0411), while from France, prevalence was 50.25% (95% CI 25.38-75.12; τ2 = 0.1797). The prevalence of CHIK chronic arthritis was 13.66% (95% CI 9.31-18.00; τ2 = 0.0060). Considering just those studies with ≥200 patients assessed, prevalence was 34.14% (95% CI 23.99-44.29; τ2 = 0.0525). In studies with a followup ≥18 months, prevalence was 32.13% (95% CI 22.21-42.04; τ2 = 0.0453).
Conclusion: According to our results in the most conservative scenario, approximately 25% of CHIK cases would develop CHIK-CIR (34% if we just consider the most representative studies), and 14% would develop chronic arthritis.
© 2016, American College of Rheumatology.