Prediction of aortic stenosis-related events in patients with systolic ejection murmur using pocket-sized echocardiography

Abstract

Background: We have previously reported the usefulness of our newly developed visual aortic stenosis (AS) score in screening for AS using pocket-sized echocardiography. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the visual AS score and/or conventional aortic valve calcification score derived from pocket-sized echocardiography can be used to predict AS-related events.

Methods: One hundred and nine patients with systolic ejection murmur (SEM) or known AS (64 males, age 75±9 years) were enrolled and a visual AS score and an aortic valve calcification score were assessed using pocket-sized echocardiography. The primary endpoint was defined as AS-related events, including cardiac death and aortic valve replacement, during the follow-up period.

Results: In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, AS-related events were independently predicted by an aortic valve calcification score ≥3 (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.1-11; p=0.033) and a visual AS score ≥3 (HR, 15; 95% CI, 1.8-125; p=0.013). During 18±9 months of follow-up, the event-free survival rate was 98% in patients with both a visual AS score <3 and an aortic valve calcification score <3, 90% in patients with either a visual AS score ≥3 or an aortic valve calcification score ≥3 (p<0.0001), and 62% in patients with both a visual AS score ≥3 and an aortic valve calcification score ≥3 (p<0.0001).

Conclusions: The combination of visual AS score and aortic valve calcification score derived from pocket-sized echocardiography is useful for predicting AS-related events in patients with SEM.

Keywords: Aortic stenosis; Echocardiography; Pocket-sized imaging device; Prognosis; Risk stratification.