Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models

PLoS One. 2016 Feb 29;11(2):e0150243. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0150243. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Costs and Cost Analysis*
  • Investments / economics*
  • Investments / statistics & numerical data*
  • Machine Learning*
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistics, Nonparametric*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF, http://www.nrf.re.kr/nrf_eng_cms/) grant funded the Korean government (MEST) (No. 2011-0017657). This work was also conducted during a visit of the second author to DIMACS, partially enabled through support from the National Science Foundation under grant number CCF- 1144502. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.