Gaussian Mixture Models of Between-Source Variation for Likelihood Ratio Computation from Multivariate Data

PLoS One. 2016 Feb 22;11(2):e0149958. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149958. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

In forensic science, trace evidence found at a crime scene and on suspect has to be evaluated from the measurements performed on them, usually in the form of multivariate data (for example, several chemical compound or physical characteristics). In order to assess the strength of that evidence, the likelihood ratio framework is being increasingly adopted. Several methods have been derived in order to obtain likelihood ratios directly from univariate or multivariate data by modelling both the variation appearing between observations (or features) coming from the same source (within-source variation) and that appearing between observations coming from different sources (between-source variation). In the widely used multivariate kernel likelihood-ratio, the within-source distribution is assumed to be normally distributed and constant among different sources and the between-source variation is modelled through a kernel density function (KDF). In order to better fit the observed distribution of the between-source variation, this paper presents a different approach in which a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used instead of a KDF. As it will be shown, this approach provides better-calibrated likelihood ratios as measured by the log-likelihood ratio cost (Cllr) in experiments performed on freely available forensic datasets involving different trace evidences: inks, glass fragments and car paints.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms*
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Normal Distribution

Grants and funding

JFP recieved funding from "Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (ES)" (http://www.mineco.gob.es/) through the project "CMC-V2: Caracterizacion, Modelado y Compensacion de Variabilidad en la Señal de Voz", with grant number TEC2012-37585-C02-01. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.