The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis

PLoS One. 2016 Feb 22;11(2):e0149982. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149982. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis*
  • Disease Eradication / economics*
  • Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
  • Goat Diseases / economics
  • Goat Diseases / prevention & control
  • Goats
  • Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants / economics*
  • Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants / prevention & control*
  • Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus / physiology
  • Sheep
  • Sheep Diseases / economics
  • Sheep Diseases / prevention & control

Grants and funding

This paper is based on research funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (http://www.gatesfoundation.org/). The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ST and YC are employees of The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. BAJ, KMR, JCM, JA, MJ, ARP and PR were funded by the Gates Foundation to carry out the study. There was no additional external funding received for this study. The funder provided support in the form of salaries (ST, YC) or honoraria (BAJ, KMR, JCM, JA, MJ, ARP and PR) but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the 'author contributions' section.