Background: Australia is known to have had one of the highest per-capita asbestos consumption rates, yet there are few contemporary reports on malignant mesothelioma trends.
Methods: Data on 10 930 people with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) and 640 people with malignant peritoneal mesothelioma diagnosed in Australia during 1982-2009 were analysed. Observed incidence rate trends were quantified. Incidence rates were projected up to 2030 using observed incident cases during 1982-2012. The relative per-decade change in excess mortality during 1999-2009 was estimated.
Results: During 1982-2009, acceleration in MPM age-standardised incidence rates were highest for women and those aged 75 years and above, with average annual percentage changes of +4.9 (95% CI 3.6 to 6.2) and +7.2 (95% CI 5.4 to 9.0), respectively. Age-standardised incidence rates for men with MPM aged 0-64 years decelerated rapidly during 2003-2009, an average annual percentage change of -5.1% (95% CI -7.6% to -2.5%). Overall, male age-specific MPM incidence rates in the age group of 65-74 year during 2010-2030 are projected to decline with rates projected to increase for older men and women with MPM. There was a statistically significant 16% relative reduction in the excess mortality rate (EMR) up to 5 years postdiagnosis for people diagnosed with malignant pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma combined in 2009 compared with those diagnosed in 1999, an EMR ratio of 0.84 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.92).
Conclusions: Australia's malignant mesothelioma incidence rates appear to have reached maximum levels but with differences over time by age, gender and tumour location. Improvements over time in survival provide a glimpse of hope for this almost invariably fatal disease.
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