A new prognostic scoring system using factors available preoperatively to predict survival after operative resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

Surgery. 2016 Mar;159(3):842-51. doi: 10.1016/j.surg.2015.10.027. Epub 2015 Dec 10.

Abstract

Background: Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma has one of the poorest prognoses of all cancers. However, mortality and morbidity rates after surgical resection are 0-15% and 14-66%, respectively. Additionally, the 5-year overall survival rates are reported at 22-40%. These findings indicate that only selected patients achieve satisfactory beneficial effects from operative treatment. This retrospective study sought to investigate preoperatively available prognostic factors and establish a new preoperative staging system to predict survival after major hepatectomy of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Patients and methods: We evaluated 121 consecutive patients who underwent operative exploration for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Results: Univariate and multivariate analysis using the identified preoperative factors revealed that 4 factors (platelet-lymphocyte ratio [PLR] > 150, serum C-reactive protein [CRP] levels > 0.5 mg/dL, albumin levels < 3.5 g/dL, and carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA] levels > 7.0 ng/mL) were independent prognostic factors of postoperative survival. These 4 preoperative factors were allocated 1 point each. The total score was defined as the Preoperative Prognostic Score (PPS). Patients with a PPS of 0, 1, 2, or 3/4 had a 5-year survival of 84.3%, 51.3%, 46.4%, and 0%, respectively. There were also differences in the 5-year survival according to the PPS (0 vs 1 [P = .013] and 2 vs 3/4 [P < .001]). Patients with a total PPS of 3/4 had a dismal prognosis, with a median survival of 11.3 months.

Conclusion: A new preoperative scoring system using PLR, serum CRP, albumin, and CEA levels could predict postoperative survival resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Bile Duct Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Bile Duct Neoplasms / pathology
  • Bile Duct Neoplasms / surgery*
  • Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic
  • Biomarkers, Tumor / blood*
  • C-Reactive Protein / metabolism
  • Carcinoembryonic Antigen / blood
  • Cholangiocarcinoma / mortality*
  • Cholangiocarcinoma / pathology
  • Cholangiocarcinoma / surgery*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Female
  • Hepatectomy / methods
  • Hepatectomy / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Immunohistochemistry
  • Japan
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Invasiveness / pathology
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Survival Analysis
  • Treatment Outcome

Substances

  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • Carcinoembryonic Antigen
  • C-Reactive Protein