Many complex traits, as drug response, are associated with changes in biological pathways rather than being caused by single gene alterations. Here, a predictive framework is presented in which gene expression data are recoded into activity statuses of signal transduction circuits (sub-pathways within signaling pathways that connect receptor proteins to final effector proteins that trigger cell actions). Such activity values are used as features by a prediction algorithm which can efficiently predict a continuous variable such as the IC50 value. The main advantage of this prediction method is that the features selected by the predictor, the signaling circuits, are themselves rich-informative, mechanism-based biomarkers which provide insight into or drug molecular mechanisms of action (MoA).