Optimal Skin-to-Stone Distance Is a Positive Predictor for Successful Outcomes in Upper Ureter Calculi following Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

PLoS One. 2015 Dec 14;10(12):e0144912. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144912. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate whether skin-to-stone distance (SSD), which remains controversial in patients with ureter stones, can be a predicting factor for one session success following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in patients with upper ureter stones.

Patients and methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,519 patients who underwent their first ESWL between January 2005 and December 2013. Among these patients, 492 had upper ureter stones that measured 4-20 mm and were eligible for our analyses. Maximal stone length, mean stone density (HU), and SSD were determined on pretreatment non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT). For subgroup analyses, patients were divided into four groups. Group 1 consisted of patients with SSD<25th percentile, group 2 consisted of patients with SSD in the 25th to 50th percentile, group 3 patients had SSD in the 50th to 75th percentile, and group 4 patients had SSD≥75th percentile.

Results: In analyses of group 2 patients versus others, there were no statistical differences in mean age, stone length and density. However, the one session success rate in group 2 was higher than other groups (77.9% vs. 67.0%; P = 0.032). The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that shorter stone length, lower stone density, and the group 2 SSD were positive predictors for successful outcomes in ESWL. Using the Bayesian model-averaging approach, longer stone length, lower stone density, and group 2 SSD can be also positive predictors for successful outcomes following ESWL.

Conclusions: Our data indicate that a group 2 SSD of approximately 10 cm is a positive predictor for success following ESWL.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kidney Calculi / diagnostic imaging
  • Kidney Calculi / therapy*
  • Lithotripsy*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Odds Ratio
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Sex Factors
  • Skin / diagnostic imaging*
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed

Grants and funding

This study was supported by a faculty research grant from the Yonsei University College of Medicine for 2014 (6-2014-0156).