Validation of a Genomic Classifier for Predicting Post-Prostatectomy Recurrence in a Community Based Health Care Setting

J Urol. 2016 Jun;195(6):1748-53. doi: 10.1016/j.juro.2015.11.044. Epub 2015 Nov 26.

Abstract

Purpose: We determined the value of Decipher®, a genomic classifier, to predict prostate cancer outcomes among patients after prostatectomy in a community health care setting.

Materials and methods: We examined the experience of 224 men treated with radical prostatectomy from 1997 to 2009 at Kaiser Permanente Northwest, a large prepaid health plan in Portland, Oregon. Study subjects had aggressive prostate cancer with at least 1 of several criteria such as preoperative prostate specific antigen 20 ng/ml or greater, pathological Gleason score 8 or greater, stage pT3 disease or positive surgical margins at prostatectomy. The primary end point was clinical recurrence or metastasis after surgery evaluated using a time dependent c-index. Secondary end points were biochemical recurrence and salvage treatment failure. We compared the performance of Decipher alone to the widely used CAPRA-S (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical) score, and assessed the independent contributions of Decipher, CAPRA-S and their combination for the prediction of recurrence and treatment failure.

Results: Of the 224 patients treated 12 experienced clinical recurrence, 68 had biochemical recurrence and 34 experienced salvage treatment failure. At 10 years after prostatectomy the recurrence rate was 2.6% among patients with low Decipher scores but 13.6% among those with high Decipher scores (p=0.02). When CAPRA-S and Decipher scores were considered together, the discrimination accuracy of the ROC curve was increased by 0.11 compared to the CAPRA-S score alone (combined c-index 0.84 at 10 years after radical prostatectomy) for clinical recurrence.

Conclusions: Decipher improves our ability to predict clinical recurrence in prostate cancer and adds precision to conventional pathological prognostic measures.

Keywords: community health services; genomics; prognosis; prostatic neoplasms; recurrence.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Biomarkers, Tumor / metabolism*
  • Community Health Centers
  • Genomics
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / genetics*
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / pathology
  • Oregon
  • Prostate / pathology
  • Prostatectomy / adverse effects*
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / metabolism
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / pathology*
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / surgery
  • ROC Curve
  • Registries
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Salvage Therapy / adverse effects
  • Treatment Failure

Substances

  • Biomarkers, Tumor