Federal Tier 3 motor vehicle emission and fuel sulfur standards have been promulgated in the United States to help attain air quality standards for ozone and PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm). The authors modeled a standard similar to Tier 3 (a hypothetical nationwide implementation of the California Low Emission Vehicle [LEV] III standards) and prior Tier 2 standards for on-road gasoline-fueled light-duty vehicles (gLDVs) to assess incremental air quality benefits in the United States (U.S.) and the relative contributions of gLDVs and other major source categories to ozone and PM2.5 in 2030. Strengthening Tier 2 to a Tier 3-like (LEV III) standard reduces the summertime monthly mean of daily maximum 8-hr average (MDA8) ozone in the eastern U.S. by up to 1.5 ppb (or 2%) and the maximum MDA8 ozone by up to 3.4 ppb (or 3%). Reducing gasoline sulfur content from 30 to 10 ppm is responsible for up to 0.3 ppb of the improvement in the monthly mean ozone and up to 0.8 ppb of the improvement in maximum ozone. Across four major urban areas-Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia, and St. Louis-gLDV contributions range from 5% to 9% and 3% to 6% of the summertime mean MDA8 ozone under Tier 2 and Tier 3, respectively, and from 7% to 11% and 3% to 7% of the maximum MDA8 ozone under Tier 2 and Tier 3, respectively. Monthly mean 24-hr PM2.5 decreases by up to 0.5 μg/m(3) (or 3%) in the eastern U.S. from Tier 2 to Tier 3, with about 0.1 μg/m(3) of the reduction due to the lower gasoline sulfur content. At the four urban areas under the Tier 3 program, gLDV emissions contribute 3.4-5.0% and 1.7-2.4% of the winter and summer mean 24-hr PM2.5, respectively, and 3.8-4.6% and 1.5-2.0% of the mean 24-hr PM2.5 on days with elevated PM2.5 in winter and summer, respectively.
Implications: Following U.S. Tier 3 emissions and fuel sulfur standards for gasoline-fueled passenger cars and light trucks, these vehicles are expected to contribute less than 6% of the summertime mean daily maximum 8-hr ozone and less than 7% and 4% of the winter and summer mean 24-hr PM2.5 in the eastern U.S. in 2030. On days with elevated ozone or PM2.5 at four major urban areas, these vehicles contribute less than 7% of ozone and less than 5% of PM2.5, with sources outside North America and U.S. area source emissions constituting some of the main contributors to ozone and PM2.5, respectively.