Background: the reduction in red meat consumption has been proposed as one of the climate change mitigation policies associated to health benefits. In the developed world, red meat consumption is above the recommended intake level.
Objectives: the aim is to evaluate health benefits, in term of mortality decline, associated to different bovine meat consumption reduction scenarios and the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Design: meat consumption in Italy has been estimated using the Italian National Food Consumption Survey INRAN-SCAI (2005-2006) and the Multipurpose survey on household (2012) of the Italian National Institute for Statistics. Colorectal cancer and stoke mortality data are derived from the national survey on causes of death in 2012. Bovine meat consumption risk function has been retrieved from systematic literature reviews. Mean meat consumption in Italy is equal to 770 grams/week; gender and geographical variations exist: 69 per cent of the adult population are habitual bovine meat consumers; males have an average intake of over 400 grams/week in all areas of Italy (with the exception of the South), while females have lower intakes (360 grams per week), with higher consumption in the North-West (427 gr) and lower in the South of Italy. Four scenarios of reduction of bovine meat consumption (20%, 40%, 50% e 70%, respectively) have been evaluated and the number of avoidable deaths by gender and area of residence have been estimated. GHG emissions attributed to bovine meat adult consumption have been estimated to be to 10 gigagrams CO2-eq.
Results: from low to high reduction scenario, the percentage of avoidable deaths ranged from 2.1% to 6.5% for colorectal cancer and from 1.6% to 5.6% for stroke. Health benefits were greatest for males and for people living in the North-Western regions of Italy.
Conclusions: in Italy, in order to adhere to bovine meat consumption recommendations and to respect EU GHG emission reduction targets, scenarios between 50% and 70% need to be adopted.