Large citrus areas in Tamaulipas are affected by Anastrepha ludens (Loew) populations. Here we report the findings of a spatio-temporal analysis of A. ludens on an extended citrus area from 2008-2011 aimed at analyzing the probabilities of A. ludens infestation and developing an infestation risk classification for citrus production. A Geographic Information System combined with the indicator kriging geostatistics technique was used to assess A. ludens adult densities in the spring and fall. During the spring, our models predicted higher probabilities of infestation in the western region, close to the Sierra Madre Oriental, than in the east. Although a patchy distribution of probabilities was observed in the fall, there was a trend toward higher probabilities of infestation in the west than east. The final raster models summarized the probability maps using a three-tiered infestation risk classification (low-, medium-, and high risk). These models confirmed the greater infestation risk in the west in both seasons. These risk classification data support arguments for the use of the sterile insect technique and biological control in this extended citrus area and will have practical implications for the area-wide integrated pest management carried out by the National Program Against Fruit Flies in Tamaulipas, Mexico.
Keywords: GIS; Mexican fruit fly; distribution; indicator kriging; risk.
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