Empirical Estimation of R0 for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta

Alex Potapov; Evelyn Merrill; Margo Pybus; Mark A Lewis

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140024

Empirical Estimation of R0 for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta

PLoS One. 2015 Oct 9;10(10):e0140024. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140024. eCollection 2015.

Authors

Alex Potapov¹, Evelyn Merrill², Margo Pybus³, Mark A Lewis¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
² Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
³ Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, 6909-116 St., Edmonton, AB, T6H 4P2, Canada.

Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R0 from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R0. We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R0 and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Alberta / epidemiology
Animals
Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data*
Basic Reproduction Number / veterinary
Deer
Empirical Research*
Humans
Models, Statistical
Models, Theoretical
Statistics as Topic
Wasting Disease, Chronic / epidemiology*
Wasting Disease, Chronic / transmission

Grants and funding

This work has been supported by Alberta Prion Research Institute and Alberta Innovation through grants (E. Merrill: RES0004230), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grants (EM, MAL) Alberta Conservation Association Grant (EM,AP), and an NSERC Accelerator Grant, a Killam Research Fellowship and a Canada Research Chair to MAL. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.