The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe

PLoS One. 2015 Oct 1;10(10):e0138714. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138714. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

We quantify the 'permanent' socio-economic impacts of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing a large-scale panel dataset of 1,719 cities, towns, and wards from Japan over three decades. In order to estimate the counterfactual--i.e., the Kobe economy without the earthquake--we use the synthetic control method. Three important empirical patterns emerge: First, the population size and especially the average income level in Kobe have been lower than the counterfactual level without the earthquake for over fifteen years, indicating a permanent negative effect of the earthquake. Such a negative impact can be found especially in the central areas which are closer to the epicenter. Second, the surrounding areas experienced some positive permanent impacts in spite of short-run negative effects of the earthquake. Much of this is associated with movement of people to East Kobe, and consequent movement of jobs to the metropolitan center of Osaka, that is located immediately to the East of Kobe. Third, the furthest areas in the vicinity of Kobe seem to have been insulated from the large direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Cities / economics
  • Cities / statistics & numerical data
  • Disasters / economics*
  • Earthquakes / economics*
  • Employment / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Japan
  • Male
  • Population Dynamics / statistics & numerical data
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Time Factors

Grants and funding

YS received funding from the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan). IN received funding from NOAA-USA (Sea Grant NA09OAR4170060). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.