Analysis of the Japanese Diabetes Risk Score and fatty liver markers for incident diabetes in a Japanese cohort

Abstract

Aims: We examined the effectiveness of the Japanese Diabetes Risk Score (JPDRISC) and fatty liver markers for predicting incident diabetes.

Methods: We created the JPDRISC. The study periods I and II were January 2007 to May 2009 and June 2009 to December 2011, respectively. A total of 2084 people (1389 men, 695 women; mean age: 46 years) were included. People with diabetes in the Period I and those with ethanol intake >140 g/week were excluded. A total of 1515 people were included. Fatty liver using ultrasonography scores (FLUS) were assigned.

Results: The mean observation period was 26.3 months, and 24 people had developed diabetes between the Periods I and II. In logistic regression analysis, the JPDRISC (OR=1.197, 95% C.I.: 1.062-1.350, p=0.003) and FLUS (OR=2.591, 95% C.I.: 1.411-4.758, p=0.002) in the Period I were independent determinants of incident diabetes. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, sensitivity and specificity for incident diabetes were 0.885 and 0.536, respectively, in people with both FLUS≥1 and the total JPDRISC≥6 in the Period I. The sensitivity was better than the JPDRISC alone (sensitivity 0.696) and FLUS alone (sensitivity 0.750).

Conclusions: JPDRISC and FLUS were independently associated with incident diabetes and their combination is useful.

Keywords: Diabetes risk score; Incident diabetes; Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; Ultrasonography.