The association between human papillomavirus 31 (HPV31) DNA loads and the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN2-3) was evaluated among women enrolled in the atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) triage study (ALTS), who were monitored semiannually over 2 years and who had HPV31 infections detected at ≥1 visit. HPV31 DNA loads in the first HPV31-positive samples and in a random set of the last positive samples from women with ≥2 HPV31-positive visits were measured by a real-time PCR assay. CIN2-3 was histologically confirmed at the same time as the first detection of HPV31 for 88 (16.6%) of 530 women. After adjustment for HPV31 lineages, coinfection with other oncogenic types, and the timing of the first positive detection, the odds ratio (OR) per 1-log-unit increase in viral loads for the risk of a concurrent diagnosis of CIN2-3 was 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 1.9). Of 373 women without CIN2-3 at the first positive visit who had ≥1 later visit, 44 had subsequent diagnoses of CIN2-3. The initial viral loads were associated with CIN2-3 diagnosed within 6 months after the first positive visit (adjusted OR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.0 to 2.4]) but were unrelated to CIN2-3 diagnosed later. For a random set of 49 women who were tested for viral loads at the first and last positive visits, changes in viral loads were upward and downward among women with and without follow-up CIN2-3 diagnoses, respectively, although the difference was not statistically significant. Results suggest that HPV31 DNA load levels at the first positive visit signal a short-term but not long-term risk of CIN2-3.
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