Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

PLoS One. 2015 Aug 4;10(8):e0132944. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132944. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Attitude
  • Commerce
  • Economics*
  • Emotions*
  • Games, Recreational / psychology*
  • Humans
  • Machine Learning
  • Models, Econometric
  • Social Support
  • Surveys and Questionnaires

Grants and funding

This research was supported by a Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, ICT and future Planning (NRF-2012R1A1A1012895, NRF-2013R1A1A2011602, NRF-2014R1A2A2A01007143). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.