National health expenditure projections, 2014-24: spending growth faster than recent trends

Health Aff (Millwood). 2015 Aug;34(8):1407-17. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0600.

Abstract

Health spending growth in the United States is projected to average 5.8 percent for 2014-24, reflecting the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging. Recent historically low growth rates in the use of medical goods and services, as well as medical prices, are expected to gradually increase. However, in part because of the impact of continued cost-sharing increases that are anticipated among health plans, the acceleration of these growth rates is expected to be modest. The health share of US gross domestic product is projected to rise from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024.

Keywords: Cost of Health Care; Financing Health Care; Health Economics; Health Spending; Medicare.

MeSH terms

  • Drug Costs / trends*
  • Forecasting
  • Gross Domestic Product / trends
  • Health Expenditures / trends*
  • Hospitals / statistics & numerical data
  • Hospitals / trends
  • Humans
  • Insurance Coverage / trends*
  • Insurance, Health / economics
  • Insurance, Health / trends*
  • Medicaid / economics
  • Medicaid / trends
  • Medicare / economics
  • Medicare / trends
  • Models, Econometric
  • Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act / trends
  • Physicians / statistics & numerical data
  • Physicians / trends
  • Prescription Drugs / economics*
  • Prescription Drugs / therapeutic use
  • United States

Substances

  • Prescription Drugs