Spatiotemporal Clustering Analysis and Risk Assessments of Human Cutaneous Anthrax in China, 2005-2012

PLoS One. 2015 Jul 24;10(7):e0133736. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133736. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters.

Methods: CA cases reported during 2005-2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test.

Results: The group of 30-39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis.

Conclusion: CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005-2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Anthrax / epidemiology*
  • Anthrax / history
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Female
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Population Surveillance
  • Risk Assessment
  • Seasons
  • Skin Diseases, Bacterial / epidemiology*
  • Skin Diseases, Bacterial / history
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Supplementary concepts

  • Cutaneous anthrax

Grants and funding

This study was funded in part by the grants from National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955500-955504) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (81102169). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.