Identification of Patient Zero in Static and Temporal Networks: Robustness and Limitations

Phys Rev Lett. 2015 Jun 19;114(24):248701. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.114.248701. Epub 2015 Jun 16.

Abstract

Detection of patient zero can give new insights to epidemiologists about the nature of first transmissions into a population. In this Letter, we study the statistical inference problem of detecting the source of epidemics from a snapshot of spreading on an arbitrary network structure. By using exact analytic calculations and Monte Carlo estimators, we demonstrate the detectability limits for the susceptible-infected-recovered model, which primarily depend on the spreading process characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach in a case of a simulated sexually transmitted infection spreading over an empirical temporal network of sexual interactions.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Contact Tracing / methods*
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases / transmission