The objective of the present study was to identify risk factors among epidemiological factors and meteorological conditions in connection with fatal pulmonary embolism. Information was collected from forensic autopsy records in sudden unexpected death cases where pulmonary embolism was the exact cause of death between 2001 and 2010 in Budapest. Meteorological parameters were detected during the investigated period. Gender, age, manner of death, cause of death, place of death, post-mortem pathomorphological changes and daily meteorological conditions (i.e. daily mean temperature and atmospheric pressure) were examined. We detected that the number of registered pulmonary embolism (No 467, 211 male) follows power law in time regardless of the manner of death. We first described that the number of registered fatal pulmonary embolism up to the nth day can be expressed as Y(n) = α ⋅ n (β) where Y denotes the number of fatal pulmonary embolisms up to the nth day and α > 0 and β > 1 are model parameters. We found that there is a definite link between the cold temperature and the increasing incidence of fatal pulmonary embolism. Cold temperature and the change of air pressure appear to be predisposing factors for fatal pulmonary embolism. Meteorological parameters should have provided additional information about the predisposing factors of thromboembolism.
Keywords: Bayesian estimation; Medico-legal investigation; Meteorological parameters; Poisson point process; Power law relation; Pulmonary embolism; Venous thrombosis.