Statistical failure models for water distribution pipes - A review from a unified perspective

Abstract

This review describes and compares statistical failure models for water distribution pipes in a systematic way and from a unified perspective. The way the comparison is structured provides the information needed by scientists and practitioners to choose a suitable failure model for their specific needs. The models are presented in a novel framework consisting of: 1) Clarification of model assumptions. The models originally formulated in different mathematical forms are all presented as failure rate. This enables to see differences and similarities across the models. Furthermore, we present a new conceptual failure rate that an optimal model would represent and to which the failure rate of each model can be compared. 2) Specification of the detailed data assumptions required for unbiased model calibration covering the structure and completeness of the data. 3) Presentation of the different types of probabilistic predictions available for each model. Nine different models and their variations or further developments are presented in this review. For every model an overview of its applications published in scientific journals and the available software implementations is provided. The unified view provides guidance to model selection. Furthermore, the model comparison presented herein enables to identify areas where further research is needed.

Keywords: Break model; Deterioration model; Failure rate; Pipe failure model.