Modeling of long range transport pathways for radionuclides to Korea during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident and their association with meteorological circulations

Abstract

The Lagrangian FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System (NCEP/GFS) meteorological data were used to simulate the long range transport pathways of three artificial radionuclides: (131)I, (137)Cs, and (133)Xe, coming into Korean Peninsula during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident. Using emission rates of these radionuclides estimated from previous studies, three distinctive transport routes of these radionuclides toward the Korean Peninsula for a period from 10 March to 20 April 2011 were exploited by three spatial scales: 1) intercontinental scale - plume released since mid-March 2011 and transported to the North to arrive Korea on 23 March 2011, 2) global (hemispherical) scale - plume traveling over the whole northern hemisphere passing through the Pacific Ocean/Europe to reach the Korean Peninsula with relatively low concentrations in late March 2011 and, 3) regional scale - plume released on early April 2011 arrived at the Korean Peninsula via southwest sea of Japan influenced directly by veering mesoscale wind circulations. Our identification of these transport routes at three different scales of meteorological circulations suggests the feasibility of a multi-scale approach for more accurate prediction of radionuclide transport in the study area. In light of the fact that the observed arrival/duration time of peaks were explained well by the FLEXPART model coupled with NCEP/GFS input data, our approach can be used meaningfully as a decision support model for radiation emergency situations.

Keywords: FLEXPART; Fukushima accident; Long range transport; Radionuclide.