The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China's forests between 2005 and 2050

Huifeng Hu; Shaopeng Wang; Zhaodi Guo; Bing Xu; Jingyun Fang

doi:10.1038/srep11203

The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China's forests between 2005 and 2050

Sci Rep. 2015 Jun 25:5:11203. doi: 10.1038/srep11203.

Authors

Huifeng Hu¹, Shaopeng Wang², Zhaodi Guo³, Bing Xu², Jingyun Fang⁴

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
² Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China.
³ 1] Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China [2] National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
⁴ 1] State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China [2] Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Abstract

China's forests are characterized by young age, low carbon (C) density and a large plantation area, implying a high potential for increasing C sinks in the future. Using data of provincial forest area and biomass C density from China's forest inventories between 1994 and 2008 and the planned forest coverage of the country by 2050, we developed a stage-classified matrix model to predict biomass C stocks of China's forests from 2005 to 2050. The results showed that total forest biomass C stock would increase from 6.43 Pg C (1 Pg = 10(15) g) in 2005 to 9.97 Pg C (95% confidence interval: 8.98 ~ 11.07 Pg C) in 2050, with an overall net C gain of 78.8 Tg C yr(-1) (56.7 ~ 103.3 Tg C yr(-1); 1 Tg = 10(12) g). Our findings suggest that China's forests will be a large and persistent biomass C sink through 2050.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Biomass*
Carbon / analysis*
China
Ecosystem
Forests
Models, Theoretical*

Substances

Carbon