Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions

Xiaobing Zhao; Ding Du

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.002

Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions

J Environ Manage. 2015 Sep 1:160:39-44. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.002. Epub 2015 Jun 14.

Authors

Xiaobing Zhao¹, Ding Du²

Affiliations

¹ Northern Arizona University, The W. A. Franke College of Business, 20 W. McConnell Drive, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. Electronic address: xiaobing.zhao@nau.edu.
² Northern Arizona University, The W. A. Franke College of Business, 20 W. McConnell Drive, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. Electronic address: ding.du@nau.edu.

PMID: 26081307
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.002

Abstract

This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions; Environmental Kuznets curve; Global warming; Reduced-form econometrics model.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants / chemistry*
Carbon Dioxide / chemistry*
Climate
Forecasting
Global Health
Greenhouse Effect*
Humans
Models, Theoretical*

Substances

Air Pollutants
Carbon Dioxide