The purpose of this study was to determine the cephalometric variables that can predict the future need for orthognathic surgery or distraction osteogenesis in Korean male patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip and alveolus (CLA) and unilateral (UCLP) and bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP). A total of 131 patients who were treated by one surgeon and one orthodontist using identical protocol were divided into CLA group (n = 35), UCLP group (n = 56), and BCLP group (n = 40). Lateral cephalograms were taken before secondary alveolar bone graft (T0; mean age, 9.3 years) and at the minimum of 15 years of age (T1; mean age, 17.3 years). The cephalometric variables of these cephalograms were measured. At T1 stage, 3 cephalometric criteria were used to divide the subjects into surgery and nonsurgery groups (ANB ≤ -3 degrees; Wits appraisal ≤ -5 mm; Harvold unit difference ≥ 34 mm for surgery group). The feature wrapping method was used to determine the cephalometric variables at T0 stage for a prediction model. At T1 stage, 27 (20.6%) of 131 subjects required surgical intervention to correct their sagittal skeletal discrepancies. Frequency was significantly different among the CLA, UCLP, and BCLP groups (8.5%, 21.4%, and 30.0%, respectively; P < 0.05; [CLA, UCLP] < [UCLP, BCLP]). A total of 10 cephalometric variables of T0 stage were selected as predictors, and weighted classification accuracy was 77.3%. The frequency of surgical intervention increased with cleft severity. Ten cephalometric variables might be regarded as effective predictors of the future need for surgery to correct their sagittal skeletal discrepancies.