Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia

Simone Mereu; Janez Sušnik; Antonio Trabucco; Andre Daccache; Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia; Stefano Renoldi; Andrea Virdis; Dragan Savić; Dionysis Assimacopoulos

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066

Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia

Sci Total Environ. 2016 Feb 1;543(Pt B):1028-38. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066. Epub 2015 Jun 4.

Authors

Simone Mereu¹, Janez Sušnik², Antonio Trabucco¹, Andre Daccache³, Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia⁴, Stefano Renoldi⁵, Andrea Virdis⁶, Dragan Savić⁴, Dionysis Assimacopoulos⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DipNeT), University of Sassari, Italy; Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Changes, IAFES Division, Sassari, Italy.
² Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Integrated Water Systems and Governance Department, PO Box 3015, 2601DA Delft, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.susnik@unesco-ihe.org.
³ Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Changes, IAFES Division, Sassari, Italy.
⁴ Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
⁵ Center for North South Economic Research (CRENoS), Cagliari, Italy.
⁶ Water Resource Planning - Sardinian Regional Water Authority (ENAS), Cagliari, Italy.
⁷ School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece.

PMID: 26051595
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066

Abstract

Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Those reservoirs at risk to future change should be identified, and mitigating measures investigated.

Keywords: Hydropower; Irrigation; Reservoir resilience; System dynamics; Water resources.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't