Nowcasting unemployment rates with Google searches: evidence from the Visegrad Group countries

PLoS One. 2015 May 22;10(5):e0127084. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0127084. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group--the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Czech Republic
  • Humans
  • Hungary
  • Internet*
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Poland
  • Slovakia
  • Unemployment / statistics & numerical data*

Grants and funding

Funding provided by European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. FP7-SSH-612955, Czech Science Foundation project No. P402/12/G097 “DYME–Dynamic Models in Economics” and The Research Councils United Kingdom via Grant EP/K039830/1. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.