An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming

PLoS One. 2015 May 6;10(5):e0124145. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124145. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Disaster Planning*
  • Ecosystem
  • Fisheries*
  • Global Warming*
  • Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Economic
  • Oceanography
  • Oceans and Seas*
  • Pectinidae*
  • Population Dynamics
  • United States
  • Water Pollution, Chemical

Grants and funding

Cooley, Rheuban, and Doney were supported by NOAA Grant NA12NOS4780145 (www.noaa.gov) and the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (CEDM, NSF SES-0949710) (www.nsf.gov). Luu was supported by a WHOI Summer Student Fellowship (www.whoi.edu). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.