Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change

PLoS One. 2015 Apr 14;10(4):e0124155. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124155. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture
  • Climate Change*
  • Coffea / growth & development*
  • Ecosystem

Grants and funding

This study has been funded by the CGIAR program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.