Natural history of bleeding risk in colonic diverticulosis patients: a long-term colonoscopy-based cohort study

Abstract

Background: The natural history of bleeding risk from colonic diverticulosis remains unclear.

Aim: To identify the incidence of bleeding in colonic diverticulosis patients and associated risk factors.

Methods: A cohort of 1514 patients with colonoscopy-confirmed asymptomatic diverticulosis was selected between 2001 and 2013. Age, sex and location of colonic diverticulosis (right or left side, or bilateral) were assessed. The endpoint was a bleeding event, and data were censored at the time of last colonoscopy. The cumulative and overall incidences of bleeding were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier and person-years methods. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

Results: The median follow-up period was 46 months. Bleeding events occurred in 35 patients, and the median time-to-event interval was 50 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative incidence of diverticular bleeding was 0.21% at 12 months, 2.2% at 60 months and 9.5% at 120 months. By the person-years method, the overall incidence rate of bleeding was 0.46 per 1000 patient-years. On multivariate analysis, age ≥70 (aHR. 3.7) and bilateral diverticulosis (aHR, 2.4) were significant risk factors for bleeding.

Conclusions: This long-term follow-up study demonstrated that the cumulative incidence of bleeding from diverticulosis was approximately 2% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years, and the overall incidence was 0.46 per 1000 patient-years. Bilateral diverticulosis increased the risk of bleeding.