We studied the feasibility of evaluating tumor control probability (TCP) reductions for tumor motion beyond planned gated radiotherapy margins. Tumor motion was determined from cone-beam CT projections acquired for patient setup, intrafraction respiratory traces, and 4D CTs for five non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with gated radiotherapy. Tumors were subdivided into 1 mm sections whose positions and doses were determined for each beam-on time point. (The dose calculation model was verified with motion phantom measurements.) The calculated dose distributions were used to generate the treatment TCPs for each patient. The plan TCPs were calculated from the treatment planning dose distributions. The treatment TCPs were compared to the plan TCPs for various models and parameters. Calculated doses matched phantom measurements within 0.3% for up to 3 cm of motion. TCP reductions for excess motion greater than 5mm ranged from 1.7% to 11.9%, depending on model parameters, and were as high as 48.6% for model parameters that simulated an individual patient. Repeating the worst case motion for all fractions increased TCP reductions by a factor of 2 to 3, while hypofractionation decreased these reductions by as much as a factor of 3. Treatment motion exceeding gating margins by more than 5 mm can lead to considerable TCP reductions. Appropriate margins for excess motion are recommended, unless applying daily tumor motion verification and adjusting thegating window.