We study the plastic deformation of bulk metallic glasses with shear transformation zone (STZ) theory, a physical model for plasticity in amorphous systems, and compare it with experimental data. In STZ theory, plastic deformation occurs when localized regions rearrange due to applied stress and the density of these regions is determined by a dynamically evolving effective disorder temperature. We compare the predictions of STZ theory to experiments that explore the low-temperature deformation of Zr-based bulk metallic glasses via shear bands at various thermal temperatures and strain rates. By following the evolution of effective temperature with time, strain rate, and temperature through a series of approximate and numerical solutions to the STZ equations, we successfully model a suite of experimentally observed phenomena, including shear-band aging as apparent from slide-hold-slide tests, a temperature-dependent steady-state flow stress, and a strain-rate- and temperature-dependent transition from stick-slip (serrated flow) to steady-sliding (nonserrated flow). We find that STZ theory quantitatively matches the observed experimental data and provides a framework for relating the experimentally measured energy scales to different types of atomic rearrangements.