Aim: There have been no established predictors of the outcome on sorafenib therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We aimed to establish a new prognostic model suitable for sorafenib in HCC.
Methods: Among 465 HCC patients treated with sorafenib in 14 hospitals, we formed a training cohort with 270 patients at seven hospitals located in West Japan and a validation cohort with 167 patients at seven hospitals located in East Japan. In the training cohort, we examined the relationship between overall survival (OS) and pretreatment clinical factors, and structured a new prognostic model. We verified this model in the validation cohort and compared with four existing staging models.
Results: Multivariate analysis demonstrated distant metastases, portal invasion, intrahepatic tumor burden of more than 50%, serum α-fetoprotein of 150 ng/dL or more, des-γ-carboxyprothrombin of 1200 mAU/mL or more, albumin of 3.5 g/dL or less and total bilirubin of more than 1.0 mg/dL were significant independent adverse prognostic factors. We calculated a Japan Red Cross (JRC) score with these factors and classified three groups: low-, intermediate- or high-risk. Their median OS were well stratified (18.0, 8.8 and 3.7 months, respectively, P < 0.001) in the training cohort. In the validation cohort, OS were also statistically stratified (23.9, 10.3 and 2.9 months, P < 0.001). C-statistics of the JRC score was 0.755, the highest in the five models, indicating its novel predictability.
Conclusion: Our proposed JRC score well predicts the prognosis of sorafenib therapy, and would be useful to plan individualized strategies for unresectable HCC.
Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma; predictive factor; prognostic model; sorafenib; survival.
© 2015 The Japan Society of Hepatology.