The combination of rapid biodiversity loss and limited funds available for conservation represents a major global concern. While there are many approaches for conservation prioritization, few are framed as financial optimization problems. We use recently published avian data to conduct a global analysis of the financial resources required to conserve different quantities of phylogenetic diversity (PD). We introduce a new prioritization metric (ADEPD) that After Downlisting a species gives the Expected Phylogenetic Diversity at some future time. Unlike other metrics, ADEPD considers the benefits to future PD associated with downlisting a species (e.g. moving from Endangered to Vulnerable in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List). Combining ADEPD scores with data on the financial cost of downlisting different species provides a cost-benefit prioritization approach for conservation. We find that under worst-case spending $3915 can save 1 year of PD, while under optimal spending $1 can preserve over 16.7 years of PD. We find that current conservation spending patterns are only expected to preserve one quarter of the PD that optimal spending could achieve with the same total budget. Maximizing PD is only one approach within the wider goal of biodiversity conservation, but our analysis highlights more generally the danger involved in uninformed spending of limited resources.
Keywords: EDGE; Noah's Ark problem; conservation prioritization; phylogeny-based conservation.