Development of a scoring system to estimate mortality in abdominal aortic aneurysms management

Vascular. 2015 Dec;23(6):586-91. doi: 10.1177/1708538114563825. Epub 2014 Dec 9.

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to define risk factors associated with inpatient mortality in patients undergoing elective repair for unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and utilize these factors to create a scoring system to estimate risk of mortality.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was completed using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1998 to 2011. Patients who underwent elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair were identified using ICD-9 codes. Demographics, comorbidities, length of stay, insurance status, and mortality were recorded. Statistically significant variables were identified using a multivariate analysis, and a discriminant analysis was used to identify factors predictive of inpatient mortality.

Results: Over a 14-year period, 28,448 patients underwent elective repair of an unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. Independent variables associated with inpatient mortality included: age >60, female gender, congestive heart failure, peripheral artery disease, renal failure, malnutrition, and hypercoagulability. Endovascular aneurysm repair was protective against inpatient mortality. The area under the curve for the discriminant function was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81-0.85) and successfully classified 87.9% of patients within the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (25,006/28,448 patients).

Conclusion: Seven factors that predict an increased risk of mortality and one factor that decreased the risk of mortality were identified. Preoperative risk factor mitigation may improve mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

Keywords: Abdominal aortic aneurysm; mortality; risk score.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / diagnosis
  • Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / mortality*
  • Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / surgery*
  • Area Under Curve
  • Databases, Factual
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • Elective Surgical Procedures
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Protective Factors
  • ROC Curve
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • United States
  • Vascular Surgical Procedures / adverse effects
  • Vascular Surgical Procedures / mortality*