Using exceedance probabilities to detect anomalies in routinely recorded animal health data, with particular reference to foot-and-mouth disease in Viet Nam

Abstract

The widespread availability of computer hardware and software for recording and storing disease event information means that, in theory, we have the necessary information to carry out detailed analyses of factors influencing the spatial distribution of disease in animal populations. However, the reliability of such analyses depends on data quality, with anomalous records having the potential to introduce significant bias and lead to inappropriate decision making. In this paper we promote the use of exceedance probabilities as a tool for detecting anomalies when applying hierarchical spatio-temporal models to animal health data. We illustrate this methodology through a case study data on outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Viet Nam for the period 2006-2008. A flexible binomial logistic regression was employed to model the number of FMD infected communes within each province of the country. Standard analyses of the residuals from this model failed to identify problems, but exceedance probabilities identified provinces in which the number of reported FMD outbreaks was unexpectedly low. This finding is interesting given that these provinces are on major cattle movement pathways through Viet Nam.

Keywords: Bayesian; Exceedance probabilities; Logistic regression; Random effects; Under-reporting; Veterinary epidemiology.